In fact, when someone says the word prepper, after an inevitable eye roll and violent face-palm, it probably conjures the same image in your mind that it does mine. A kook who blathers on about chem-trails and the new world order wearing fatigues and combat boots. It's a bad look.
It's consistently difficult to keep current events in perspective. People have always, and I mean always, prognosticated mankind's imminent doom. As evidenced by your current existence, they have always been wrong. Yet it is difficult argue that we live in unique times. Never in the history or our species has there been such a plethora of possible existential threats to our civilization. All it would take is a simple miscommunication within the chain of command of a nuclear armed military to wreak havoc upon the planet, to one degree or another. Of course, every kook with a bomb shelter will tell you as much. That's been a threat for nigh on 75 years, and I've never been compelled to build a bunker.
Yet, I think it is hard to understate the fragility of our current prosperity. In order to reduce their liability in the event of ever-increasing wildfires in California, Pacific Gas and Electric Company began shutting off parts of their grid last month when the fire conditions were particularly hazardous. People in affluent San Francisco suburbs suddenly found themselves living in the 18th century, albeit with much fancier clothes on their pets. The water company couldn't power their pumps; no water. Gas stations couldn't power their pumps either; no fuel. Diabetics couldn't keep their insulin cold, putting their lives at risk. Stores had a run on supplies (a small one, anyway), you know the unimportant stuff like food and water. I wouldn't call it chaos, but you could sense chaos lurking, just out of sight. Read this. And this.
All this begs the question: As unlikely as complete chaos may be, how prepared are you for it? If the power went out tomorrow, and didn't immediately come back, what would you do? I think about this. Can you be just a normal dude, sans tinfoil hat, and yet be prepared for survival in the event that our fragile economy or society should somehow regress? When the press reported on people in California who were faced with the prospect of dying because of a planned power outage, I couldn't help but think, "these people are idiots..." Then I looked in the mirror and realized that I am also an idiot. If the power went out tomorrow, to what extent could my family avoid fighting over basic necessities at the local Target with other desperate idiots? And that is all it would take to grind society to a complete halt. No power.
There is no doubt that we need to build communities that are much more resilient. It cannot be argued that our entire system's foundation is built upon finite resources. Climate change is getting to the point where only fools would deny it, and all evidence shows that we are not doing enough to meet emissions reduction targets that would keep warming to the "we're mostly fucked" levels, as opposed to where we're headed, which is FUBAR. If things continue on this trend, the ways in which our current prosperity could be threatened are limited only to one's imagination. To answer the inevitable question of, "how seriously should I take this?", take a gander at this. What is the likelihood the Pentagon, the US Army, and NASA would not only create, but also release a report such as this without the threat being credible, at the very least?
Let's examine the other side of the coin. Here is a story printed last month from Reason.com. It makes the same case that Steven Pinker makes in his book Enlightenment Now. In summary, if you look at most metrics that define human well being, it's better to be alive right now than at any other time in human history. I agree. But it's pretty amazing how dismissive the author is of our current problems.
For example, man-made climate change arising largely from increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels could become a significant problem for humanity during this century. The spread of plastic marine debris is a big and growing concern. Many wildlife populations are declining, and tropical forest area continues to shrink. And far too many people are still malnourished and dying in conflicts around the globe.The thrust of his argument is, and I'm paraphrasing here: Look, seemingly unlimited supplies of cheap energy, coupled with amazing advances in our understanding of our natural world have led to things being really good to this point. Thus, you have nothing to worry about. We can innovate our way out of all problems. Does this strike anyone else of a shocking display of confirmation bias? Does it not ignore a mountain of data and evidence that we are forerunners of a mass extinction and potential economic and ecological collapse? Seems like naivete run amok to me.... The author goes to the trouble of listing a few enormous challenges that we face, and then says we are well on our way to solving them. Really? Because the prices of renewables are falling? He asserts almost nothing to back up this claim.
But many of those problems are already in the process of being ameliorated. For example, the falling prices of renewable energy sources offer ever-stronger incentives to switch away from fossil fuels.
Here's the point. If there is a possibility that we could face a large scale disruption to our economic and / or societal stability, who is prepared for that? Think again about your mental image of a "prepper". Do you want to meet any of those people at the local Target when there's a run on supplies?
The way I see it, preparedness exists on a continuum. On one end, there are the people who, when the power goes out, die. On the other hand, there are those who, insofar as it is possible, wouldn't miss a beat. There are enough credible people and institutions, with access to much more data than I ever could, who are ringing alarm bells. It's a simple question, really. Either you believe in the science or you don't. I do. Do I act accordingly? I don't think so...
So what's the solution? Become a "prepper"? Install a backup generator and stock some food and water? Stock guns and ammo? Lose 20 pounds? I really am just a normal dude, and my wife isn't going for anything extreme, but I can't reconcile claiming to believe what the IPCC, and NASA, and every other credible scientific organization is claiming (and preparing for themselves!) and just carrying on like the future is rosy. Seems like an alarming amount of cognitive dissonance.
Let the prepping begin?
