Friday, July 17, 2020

Risk Management - Can You Protect Yourself from Weaponized Stupidity?

The shit show continues, unabated. As it turns out, a virus thrives on stupidity. Americans decided that we were tired of the pesky rules that kept the coronavirus at bay, but as it turns out, denial isn't a vaccine. Who'd have thunk?

The handling of this pandemic, on a global scale but especially in the U.S., does not give anyone (with a shred of common sense) confidence that we are up to the task of containing any sort of existential risk. Imagine, if you will, a pandemic that is more virulent? Has a much higher mortality? The truth of the matter is that 99% of people could be well and truly fucked.

And it's not simply the gross, aloof incompetence of the leaders in our country, or their cynical, obtuse execution (or lack thereof) of any sort of response to the pandemic. It's also the remarkable stupidity with which the general populace has reacted to said pandemic. And not to be a total hypocrite, I include myself in this category to some extent. It's very easy to have the knowledge of a thing, and to react poorly when the thing doesn't effect you personally. We see this every day with climate change. I know that it is probably bad, and that I have to take it seriously. I know that I should do everything in my power to minimize my own contribution to the problem, but because climate change does not require me to act, only compels, it's very easy to just carry on driving a truck and living in a 4000 square foot house whilst the world (or at least Australia) burns.

The Australia Wildfires in Pictures - The New York Times
Australian Wildfires in 2019-2020 - Image from The New York Times

That being said, I still wear a mask in public, and I still vote for politicians who I think are the most likely to take these issues seriously. But I am part of the problem, to some extent. So this begs the question, how do we protect ourselves, from ourselves...and others?

We, in American society, lack resilience in the face of even minor disruptions to our social systems such that it beggars belief. Our economy is largely designed for max efficiency. Max efficiency is, by necessity, not resilient. In order to build a system of, say, distribution that is resilient in the face of unexpected disruption, it requires sacrificing some of the things that make it completely efficient and cost effective. It is objectively inefficient to stockpile critical inventory (food, PPE, fuel, etc.) as a hedge against disruption in the supply chain, but we are finding out that the cost of not doing so can be counted in human lives lost.

So, if the system would have to be redesigned in order to make it more resilient, and the chance of Americans tearing down the current system and overhauling it is slim to none, and slim is sipping vodka somewhere in Red Square, then is it prudent, or even possible, to somewhat remove ourselves from that system, at least enough to protect ourselves?

What does a resilient community look like? To some extent, it still has to rely on some external systems, but that reliance can be minimized.

  • Food security - easy in theory, and not much more difficult in practice. Grow your own food, raise your own livestock, and remove yourself from the supply chain as much as possible.
  • Energy security - Solar and wind power sufficient to power the community. Also important to cultivate a greater sense of energy independence (i.e. a lifestyle that is not so dependent on the consumption of energy).
  • Water security - Clean, independent water source that is not in danger of being compromised by an outside source. Rain water collection, wells, and springs?
  • Security security - This one is not easy, because those who live in circumstances of greater insecurity and / or scarcity, will do what humans have always done - whatever it takes to survive. And that will include taking what anyone else has. Since I have no desire to live in a heavily armed community (certainly armed, but I don't know how to purchase a tank or rocket launcher..), it would necessitate some degree geographical protection. Either it's somewhat remote, or it's built like Helm's Deep...or both. I think that this is where you will have to take your chances to some extent, for reasons that I outline below. I don't want to live six hours from anything, because it means that you are building your community for the wrong reasons.
  • Resource security - Even communist enclaves like Twin Oaks (probably an unfair characterization) make hammocks or sandals or some other hippie shit for some skrilla. I don't know what this means with respect to sharing resources, but it likely would be much more substantial than your run-of-the-mill HOA dues. The good news about the Coronavirus is that it will probably result in more freedom to telecommute. 
  • Health security - This one is tough. Science-based, Western medicine, divorced from the motive of profits, is pretty neat-o. But much of it is dependent upon massive investments in infrastructure and technology. So there has to be some middle-ground. Because the resilient and secure community of the future will still need MRI's and antibiotics. 
It would also be nice to build a resilient community that manages to have a minimal ideological point of view. If you read about places like Acorn, or Twin Oaks, two of the more prominent intentional communities in the United States, there seems to be a very deep dissatisfaction with American and Western culture. Much of the criticism is valid, but I also believe much of it is dubious. It all has a very Marxist feel, and I would like to be a counterweight to that without being a Libertarian thought experiment come to life.

That's not to say that it wouldn't encourage progressive thought. The purpose is not to escape the evils of Capitalism, per se, but to simply forge a community that doesn't drive little girls into gender dysphoria, anorexia, or K-Pop. I picture a place where Tyler Cowen and Paul Krugman can come and make sweet, sweet love. Is that weird?

At any rate, the overarching goal is practical, not ideological. And, not to bury the lede or anything, but my thesis is thus: It is possible that climate change fatalism is like a new religion, and we all need to chill the fuck out a little bit. And it's also possible that this moment aboard the American experiment express isn't headed for the ravine, loaded with dynamite, despite the evidence that supports this. And we may not run out of fresh water, and there might not be a civil war, and my son(s) might escape into adulthood without becoming addicted to Oxy / coke / heroin, or all three. 

I don't think the motivation to build a resilient community should be grounded in these fears. I think we should make a sober assessment of the reality of current events, and our trajectory, and create something that will endure and offer a better, more secure way of living even if all of those assessments turn out to be totally wrong. The desire to create a healthy community that could be insulated when it has to be, but not disconnected from the broader community, should stem from what it will bring to it's members, even in the best of times in America.






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